Advances in the Application and Utility of Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Predictions
Details
Download: 1520-0477-BAMS-D-20-0224.1.pdf (11922.30 [Ko])
State: Public
Version: Final published version
License: All rights reserved
State: Public
Version: Final published version
License: All rights reserved
Serval ID
serval:BIB_FA4B9ABB5D28
Type
Article: article from journal or magazin.
Collection
Publications
Institution
Title
Advances in the Application and Utility of Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Predictions
Journal
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
ISSN
0003-0007
1520-0477
1520-0477
Publication state
Published
Issued date
06/2022
Peer-reviewed
Oui
Volume
103
Number
6
Pages
E1448-E1472
Language
english
Abstract
The subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) predictive time scale, encompassing lead times ranging from 2 weeks to a season, is at the frontier of forecasting science. Forecasts on this time scale provide opportunities for enhanced application-focused capabilities to complement existing weather and climate services and products. There is, however, a “knowledge–value” gap, where a lack of evidence and awareness of the potential socioeconomic benefits of S2S forecasts limits their wider uptake. To address this gap, here we present the first global community effort at summarizing relevant applications of S2S forecasts to guide further decision-making and support the continued development of S2S forecasts and related services. Focusing on 12 sectoral case studies spanning public health, agriculture, water resource management, renewable energy and utilities, and emergency management and response, we draw on recent advancements to explore their application and utility. These case studies mark a significant step forward in moving from potential to actual S2S forecasting applications. We show that by placing user needs at the forefront of S2S forecast development—demonstrating both skill and utility across sectors—this dialogue can be used to help promote and accelerate the awareness, value, and cogeneration of S2S forecasts. We also highlight that while S2S forecasts are increasingly gaining interest among users, incorporating probabilistic S2S forecasts into existing decision-making operations is not trivial. Nevertheless, S2S forecasting represents a significant opportunity to generate useful, usable, and actionable forecast applications for and with users that will increasingly unlock the potential of this forecasting time scale.
Keywords
Ensembles, Forecast verification/skill, Climate services, Decision support, Emergency preparedness, Societal impacts
Web of science
Open Access
Yes
Funding(s)
Swiss National Science Foundation / PP00P2_170523
Create date
07/10/2022 17:10
Last modification date
11/01/2023 18:03