Article: article from journal or magazin.
Three methods to calculate the probability of ruin
The first method, essentmlly due to GOOVAERTS and DE VYLDER, uses the connection between the probabiliy of ruin and the maximal aggregate loss random variable, and the fact that the latter has a compound geometric distribution. For the second method, the claim amount distribution is supposed to be a combination of exponential or translated exponential distributions. Then the probability of ruin can be calculated in a transparent fashion; the main problem is to determine the nontrivial roots of the equation that defines the adjustment coefficient. For the third method one observes that the probability of ruin is related to the stationary distribution of a certain associated process. Thus it can be determined by a single simulation of the latter. For the second and third methods the assumption of only proper (positive) claims is not needed.
Probability of ruin, discretizatlon, combination of exponentials, simulation
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