Extreme-quantile tracking for financial time series
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Version: Final published version
State: Deleted
Version: Final published version
Serval ID
serval:BIB_E16816076FFC
Type
Article: article from journal or magazin.
Collection
Publications
Institution
Title
Extreme-quantile tracking for financial time series
Journal
Journal of Econometrics
ISSN
0304-4076
Publication state
Published
Issued date
2014
Peer-reviewed
Oui
Volume
181
Number
1
Pages
44-52
Language
english
Notes
Available online 26 February 2014
Abstract
Time series of financial asset values exhibit well-known statistical features such as heavy tails and volatility clustering. We propose a nonparametric extension of the classical Peaks-Over-Threshold method from extreme value theory to fit the time varying volatility in situations where the stationarity assumption may be violated by erratic changes of regime, say. As a result, we provide a method for estimating conditional risk measures applicable to both stationary and nonstationary series. A backtesting study for the UBS share price over the subprime crisis exemplifies our approach.
Keywords
Bayesian analysis, Conditional risk measures, Financial time series, Generalized Pareto distribution, Markov random field, Peaks-Over-Threshold, Quantile estimation, Regime switching, Statistics of extremes, Value-at-risk
Web of science
Publisher's website
Create date
04/11/2011 8:33
Last modification date
20/08/2019 16:05