Extreme-quantile tracking for financial time series

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Etat: Supprimée
Version: Final published version
ID Serval
serval:BIB_E16816076FFC
Type
Article: article d'un périodique ou d'un magazine.
Collection
Publications
Institution
Titre
Extreme-quantile tracking for financial time series
Périodique
Journal of Econometrics
Auteur⸱e⸱s
Chavez-Demoulin V., Embrechts P., Sardy S.
ISSN
0304-4076
Statut éditorial
Publié
Date de publication
2014
Peer-reviewed
Oui
Volume
181
Numéro
1
Pages
44-52
Langue
anglais
Notes
Available online 26 February 2014
Résumé
Time series of financial asset values exhibit well-known statistical features such as heavy tails and volatility clustering. We propose a nonparametric extension of the classical Peaks-Over-Threshold method from extreme value theory to fit the time varying volatility in situations where the stationarity assumption may be violated by erratic changes of regime, say. As a result, we provide a method for estimating conditional risk measures applicable to both stationary and nonstationary series. A backtesting study for the UBS share price over the subprime crisis exemplifies our approach.
Mots-clé
Bayesian analysis, Conditional risk measures, Financial time series, Generalized Pareto distribution, Markov random field, Peaks-Over-Threshold, Quantile estimation, Regime switching, Statistics of extremes, Value-at-risk
Web of science
Création de la notice
04/11/2011 9:33
Dernière modification de la notice
20/08/2019 17:05
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