A Search for Chaotic Behavior in Northern Hemisphere Stratospheric Variability
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UNIL restricted access
State: Public
Version: Final published version
License: Not specified
Serval ID
serval:BIB_D745EA9D6F00
Type
Article: article from journal or magazin.
Collection
Publications
Institution
Title
A Search for Chaotic Behavior in Northern Hemisphere Stratospheric Variability
Journal
Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences
ISSN
0022-4928
1520-0469
1520-0469
Publication state
Published
Issued date
01/04/2014
Peer-reviewed
Oui
Volume
71
Number
4
Pages
1494-1507
Language
english
Abstract
Northern Hemisphere stratospheric variability is investigated with respect to chaotic behavior using time series from three different variables extracted from four different reanalysis products and two numerical model runs with different forcing. The time series show red spectra at all frequencies and the probability distribution functions show persistent deviations from a Gaussian distribution. An exception is given by the numerical model forced with perpetual winter conditions—a case that shows more variability and follows a Gaussian distribution, suggesting that the deviation from Gaussianity found in the observations is due to the transition between summer and winter variability. To search for the presence of a chaotic attractor the correlation dimension and entropy, the Lyapunov spectrum, and the associated Kaplan–Yorke dimension are estimated. A finite value of the dimensions can be computed for each variable and data product, with the correlation dimension ranging between 3.0 and 4.0 and the Kaplan–Yorke dimension between 3.3 and 5.5. The correlation entropy varies between 0.6 and 1.1. The model runs show similar values for the correlation and Lyapunov dimensions for both the seasonally forced run and the perpetual-winter run, suggesting that the structure of a possible chaotic attractor is not determined by the seasonality in the forcing, but must be given by other mechanisms.
Keywords
Stratospheric circulation, Time series, Interannual variability
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Create date
08/03/2022 14:13
Last modification date
14/11/2024 13:54