Measuring Inflation Anchoring and Uncertainty: A U.S. and Euro Area Comparison

Details

Serval ID
serval:BIB_BAD9D13E6B51
Type
Article: article from journal or magazin.
Collection
Publications
Institution
Title
Measuring Inflation Anchoring and Uncertainty: A U.S. and Euro Area Comparison
Journal
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking
Author(s)
GRISHCHENKO O., MOUABBI S., RENNE J.-P.
ISSN
0022-2879
1538-4616
Publication state
Published
Issued date
20/05/2019
Language
english
Abstract
We use several U.S. and euro‐area surveys of professional forecasters to estimate a dynamic factor model of inflation featuring time‐varying uncertainty. We obtain survey‐consistent distributions of future inflation at any horizon, both in the U.S. and the euro area. Equipped with this model, we propose a novel measure of the anchoring of inflation expectations that accounts for inflation uncertainty. Our results suggest that following the Great Recession, inflation anchoring improved in the United States, while mild de‐anchoring occurred in the euro area. As of our sample end, both areas appear to be almost equally anchored.
Keywords
Economics and Econometrics, Accounting, Finance
Create date
07/06/2019 9:13
Last modification date
21/08/2019 6:18
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