Measuring Inflation Anchoring and Uncertainty: A U.S. and Euro Area Comparison
Détails
ID Serval
serval:BIB_BAD9D13E6B51
Type
Article: article d'un périodique ou d'un magazine.
Collection
Publications
Institution
Titre
Measuring Inflation Anchoring and Uncertainty: A U.S. and Euro Area Comparison
Périodique
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking
ISSN
0022-2879
1538-4616
1538-4616
Statut éditorial
Publié
Date de publication
20/05/2019
Langue
anglais
Résumé
We use several U.S. and euro‐area surveys of professional forecasters to estimate a dynamic factor model of inflation featuring time‐varying uncertainty. We obtain survey‐consistent distributions of future inflation at any horizon, both in the U.S. and the euro area. Equipped with this model, we propose a novel measure of the anchoring of inflation expectations that accounts for inflation uncertainty. Our results suggest that following the Great Recession, inflation anchoring improved in the United States, while mild de‐anchoring occurred in the euro area. As of our sample end, both areas appear to be almost equally anchored.
Mots-clé
Economics and Econometrics, Accounting, Finance
Création de la notice
07/06/2019 8:13
Dernière modification de la notice
21/08/2019 5:18