Causes-of-Death Mortality: What Do We Know on their Dependence?

Details

Serval ID
serval:BIB_B61D980795A9
Type
Article: article from journal or magazin.
Collection
Publications
Institution
Title
Causes-of-Death Mortality: What Do We Know on their Dependence?
Journal
North American Actuarial Journal
Author(s)
Sherris M.
Working group(s)
Arnold (-Gaille) S.
ISSN
1092-0277
Publication state
Published
Issued date
2015
Peer-reviewed
Oui
Volume
19
Number
2
Pages
116-128
Language
english
Abstract
Over the last century, the assumption usually made was that causes of death are independent, although it is well-known that dependancies exist. Recent developments in econometrics allow, through Vector Error Correction Models (VECM), to model multivariate dynamic systems including time dependency between economic variables. Common trends that exist between the variables may then be highlighted, the relation between these variables being represented by a long-run equilibrium relationship. In this work, VECM are developed for causes-of-death mortality. We analyze the five main causes of death across ten major countries representing a diversity of developed economies. The World Health Organization website provides cause-of-death information over about the last 60 years. Our analysis reveals that long-run equilibrium relationships exist between the five main causes of death, improving our understanding of the nature of dependence between these competing risks over recent years. It also highlights that countries had usually different past experience in regards to cause-of-death mortality trends and thus, applying results from one country to another may be misleading.
Keywords
Causes of death, mortality trends, cointegration, dependence, common trends
Create date
09/01/2015 8:26
Last modification date
20/08/2019 15:24
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