The consequences of understanding expert probability reporting as a decision.
Details
State: Public
Version: Final published version
Serval ID
serval:BIB_A7E9EF321EC1
Type
Article: article from journal or magazin.
Collection
Publications
Institution
Title
The consequences of understanding expert probability reporting as a decision.
Journal
Science & justice : journal of the Forensic Science Society
ISSN
1355-0306 (Print)
ISSN-L
1355-0306
Publication state
Published
Issued date
01/2017
Peer-reviewed
Oui
Volume
57
Number
1
Pages
80-85
Language
english
Notes
Publication types: Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Publication Status: ppublish
Publication Status: ppublish
Abstract
In this paper we reiterate that the personalist interpretation of probability is inevitable and as least as informed as any other allegedly more 'objective' definition of probability. We also argue that the problem faced by forensic scientists, the reporting on imperfect personal knowledge, in terms of probabilities, can be reconstructed as a decision problem. Tackling this problem through a rigorous decision theoretic analysis provides further argument in support of the view that optimal probability reporting is in terms of single numbers, not intervals.
Keywords
Probability elicitation, Probability reporting, Decision theory, Scoring rule
Pubmed
Web of science
Open Access
Yes
Create date
06/03/2017 10:57
Last modification date
20/08/2019 16:12