The consequences of understanding expert probability reporting as a decision.
Détails
Télécharger: BiedermannBozzaTaroniAitken_2017c.pdf (251.13 [Ko])
Etat: Public
Version: Final published version
Etat: Public
Version: Final published version
ID Serval
serval:BIB_A7E9EF321EC1
Type
Article: article d'un périodique ou d'un magazine.
Collection
Publications
Institution
Titre
The consequences of understanding expert probability reporting as a decision.
Périodique
Science & justice : journal of the Forensic Science Society
ISSN
1355-0306 (Print)
ISSN-L
1355-0306
Statut éditorial
Publié
Date de publication
01/2017
Peer-reviewed
Oui
Volume
57
Numéro
1
Pages
80-85
Langue
anglais
Notes
Publication types: Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Publication Status: ppublish
Publication Status: ppublish
Résumé
In this paper we reiterate that the personalist interpretation of probability is inevitable and as least as informed as any other allegedly more 'objective' definition of probability. We also argue that the problem faced by forensic scientists, the reporting on imperfect personal knowledge, in terms of probabilities, can be reconstructed as a decision problem. Tackling this problem through a rigorous decision theoretic analysis provides further argument in support of the view that optimal probability reporting is in terms of single numbers, not intervals.
Mots-clé
Probability elicitation, Probability reporting, Decision theory, Scoring rule
Pubmed
Web of science
Open Access
Oui
Création de la notice
06/03/2017 9:57
Dernière modification de la notice
20/08/2019 15:12