Arctic shrubification mediates the impacts of warming climate on changes to tundra vegetation

Détails

Ressource 1Télécharger: Mod_2016_Environ._Res._Lett._11_124028.pdf (3846.51 [Ko])
Etat: Serval
Version: Final published version
ID Serval
serval:BIB_77A042CA3E84
Type
Article: article d'un périodique ou d'un magazine.
Collection
Publications
Titre
Arctic shrubification mediates the impacts of warming climate on changes to tundra vegetation
Périodique
Environmental Research Letters
Auteur(s)
Mod H.K., Luoto M.
ISSN
1748-9326
Statut éditorial
Publié
Date de publication
2016
Peer-reviewed
Oui
Volume
11
Numéro
12
Pages
124028
Langue
anglais
Résumé
Climate change has been observed to expand distributions of woody plants in many areas of arctic and alpine environments-a phenomenon called shrubification. New spatial arrangements of shrubs cause further changes in vegetation via changing dynamics of biotic interactions. However, the mediating influence of shrubification is rarely acknowledged in predictions of tundra vegetation change. Here, we examine possible warming-induced landscape-level vegetation changes in a high-latitude environment using species distribution modelling (SDM), specifically concentrating on the impacts of shrubification on ambient vegetation. First, we produced estimates of current shrub and tree cover and forecasts of their expansion under climate change scenarios to be incorporated to SDMs of 116 vascular plants. Second, the predictions of vegetation change based on the models including only abiotic predictors and the models including abiotic, shrub and tree predictors were compared in a representative test area. Based on our model predictions, abundance of woody plants will expand, thus decreasing predicted species richness, amplifying species turnover and increasing the local extinction risk for ambient vegetation. However, the spatial variation demonstrated in our predictions highlights that tundra vegetation can be expected to show a wide variety of different responses to the combined effects of warming and shrubification, depending on the original plant species pool and environmental conditions. We conclude that realistic forecasts of the future require acknowledging the role of shrubification in warming-induced tundra vegetation change.
Mots-clé
biotic interactions, climate change, shrub, spatial modelling, tundra, vegetation
Web of science
Open Access
Oui
Création de la notice
02/02/2017 9:29
Dernière modification de la notice
08/05/2019 20:37
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