Potential sources of time lags in calibrating species distribution models.

Details

Serval ID
serval:BIB_728FF0BF2A58
Type
Article: article from journal or magazin.
Collection
Publications
Institution
Title
Potential sources of time lags in calibrating species distribution models.
Journal
Journal of biogeography
Author(s)
Essl F., García-Rodríguez A., Lenzner B., Alexander J.M., Capinha C., Gaüzère P., Guisan A., Kühn I., Lenoir J., Richardson D.M., Rumpf S.B., Svenning J.C., Thuiller W., Zurell D., Dullinger S.
ISSN
0305-0270 (Print)
ISSN-L
0305-0270
Publication state
Published
Issued date
01/2024
Peer-reviewed
Oui
Volume
51
Number
1
Pages
89-102
Language
english
Notes
Publication types: Journal Article
Publication Status: ppublish
Abstract
The Anthropocene is characterized by a rapid pace of environmental change and is causing a multitude of biotic responses, including those that affect the spatial distribution of species. Lagged responses are frequent and species distributions and assemblages are consequently pushed into a disequilibrium state. How the characteristics of environmental change-for example, gradual 'press' disturbances such as rising temperatures due to climate change versus infrequent 'pulse' disturbances such as extreme events-affect the magnitude of responses and the relaxation times of biota has been insufficiently explored. It is also not well understood how widely used approaches to assess or project the responses of species to changing environmental conditions can deal with time lags. It, therefore, remains unclear to what extent time lags in species distributions are accounted for in biodiversity assessments, scenarios and models; this has ramifications for policymaking and conservation science alike. This perspective piece reflects on lagged species responses to environmental change and discusses the potential consequences for species distribution models (SDMs), the tools of choice in biodiversity modelling. We suggest ways to better account for time lags in calibrating these models and to reduce their leverage effects in projections for improved biodiversity science and policy.
Keywords
climate change, climatic debt, colonization credit, extinction debt, invasion debt, mismatch, niche, projection, species distribution models, climate change, climatic debt, colonization credit, extinction debt, invasion debt, mismatch, niche, projection, species distribution models
Pubmed
Web of science
Open Access
Yes
Create date
05/09/2023 20:18
Last modification date
26/03/2024 8:10
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