Potential sources of time lags in calibrating species distribution models

Détails

ID Serval
serval:BIB_728FF0BF2A58
Type
Article: article d'un périodique ou d'un magazine.
Collection
Publications
Institution
Titre
Potential sources of time lags in calibrating species distribution models
Périodique
Journal of Biogeography
Auteur⸱e⸱s
Essl F., García-Rodríguez A., Lenzner B., Alexander J.M., Capinha C., Gaüzère P., Guisan A., Kühn I., Lenoir J., Richardson D.M., Rumpf S.B., Svenning J.-C., Thuiller W., Zurell D., Dullinger S.
Statut éditorial
Publié
Date de publication
2024
Peer-reviewed
Oui
Volume
51
Pages
89–102
Langue
anglais
Résumé
The Anthropocene is characterized by a rapid pace of environmental change and is causing a multitude of biotic responses, including those that affect the spatial distribution of species. Lagged responses are frequent and species distributions and assemblages are consequently pushed into a disequilibrium state. How the characteristics of environmental change – e.g., gradual ‘press’ disturbances such as rising temperatures due to climate change versus infrequent ‘pulse’ disturbances such as extreme events – affect the magnitude of responses and the relaxation times of biota has been insufficiently explored. It is also not well understood how widely-used approaches to assess or project the responses of species to changing environmental conditions can deal with time lags. It therefore remains unclear to what extent time lags in species distributions are accounted for in biodiversity assessments, scenarios and models; this has ramifications for policy making and conservation science alike. This perspective piece reflects on lagged species responses to environmental change and discusses the potential consequences for species distribution models (SDMs), the tools of choice in biodiversity modelling. We suggest ways to better account for time lags in calibrating these models and to reduce their leverage effects in projections for improved biodiversity science and policy
Mots-clé
climate change, climatic debt, colonization credit, extinction debt, invasion debt, mismatch, niche, projection, species distribution models
Création de la notice
05/09/2023 19:18
Dernière modification de la notice
24/02/2024 7:34
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