Predicting tail-related risk measures: The consequences of using GARCH filters for non GARCH data
Details
Serval ID
serval:BIB_6DB2B60BB504
Type
Article: article from journal or magazin.
Collection
Publications
Institution
Title
Predicting tail-related risk measures: The consequences of using GARCH filters for non GARCH data
Journal
Journal of Empirical Finance
ISSN
0927-5398
Publication state
Published
Issued date
12/2008
Peer-reviewed
Oui
Volume
15
Number
5
Pages
868-877
Language
english
Abstract
We investigate the consequences for Value-at-Risk and expected shortfall purposes of using a GARCH filter on various mis-specified processes. In general. we find that the McNeil and Frey (McNeil, A.J. and R. Frey, 2000, Estimation of Tail-Related Risk Measures for Heteroscedastic Financial Time Series: An Extreme Value Approach, journal of Empirical Finance 7, 271-300.) two step procedure has very good forecasting properties. Using an unconditional non-filtered tail estimate also appears to perform satisfactorily for expected shortfall measurements but less so for VaR computations. Methods assuming specific densities such as the Gaussian or Student-t may yield wrong predictions. Thus, the use of an adequacy test for filtered data to given densities appears relevant. The paper builds on recent techniques to obtain thresholds for extreme value computations. Statistical tests for the expected shortfall, based on the circular bootstrap, are developed.
Keywords
Extreme value theory, Value-at-Risk (VaR), Expected shortfall, GARCH, Markov switching, Jump diffusion, Backtesting
Web of science
Create date
09/05/2008 13:34
Last modification date
20/08/2019 14:27