Rational ignoring with unbounded cognitive capacity

Details

Serval ID
serval:BIB_65C7107AAB6B
Type
Article: article from journal or magazin.
Collection
Publications
Institution
Title
Rational ignoring with unbounded cognitive capacity
Journal
Journal of Economic Psychology
Author(s)
Berg N., Hoffrage U.
ISSN
0167-4870
Publication state
Published
Issued date
2008
Peer-reviewed
Oui
Volume
29
Number
6
Pages
792-809
Language
english
Abstract
In canonical decision problems with standard assumptions, we demonstrate that inversely related payoffs and probabilities can produce expected-payoff-maximizing decisions that are independent of payoff-relevant information. This phenomenon of rational ignoring, where expected-payoff maximizers ignore costless and genuinely predictive information, arises because the conditioning effects of such signals disappear on average (i.e., under the expectations operator) even though they exert non-trivial effects on payoffs and probabilities considered in isolation (i.e., before integrating). Thus, rational ignoring requires no decision costs. cognitive constraints, or other forms of bounded rationality. This implies that simple decision rules relying on small subsets of the available information can, depending on the environment in which they are used, achieve high payoffs. Ignoring information is therefore rationalizable solely as a consequence of the shape of the stochastic payoff distribution.
Keywords
Ignoring, Value of information, Heuristic, Bounded rationality, Ecological rationality
Web of science
Create date
24/02/2009 15:34
Last modification date
20/08/2019 15:21
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