Rational ignoring with unbounded cognitive capacity

Détails

ID Serval
serval:BIB_65C7107AAB6B
Type
Article: article d'un périodique ou d'un magazine.
Collection
Publications
Institution
Titre
Rational ignoring with unbounded cognitive capacity
Périodique
Journal of Economic Psychology
Auteur⸱e⸱s
Berg N., Hoffrage U.
ISSN
0167-4870
Statut éditorial
Publié
Date de publication
2008
Peer-reviewed
Oui
Volume
29
Numéro
6
Pages
792-809
Langue
anglais
Résumé
In canonical decision problems with standard assumptions, we demonstrate that inversely related payoffs and probabilities can produce expected-payoff-maximizing decisions that are independent of payoff-relevant information. This phenomenon of rational ignoring, where expected-payoff maximizers ignore costless and genuinely predictive information, arises because the conditioning effects of such signals disappear on average (i.e., under the expectations operator) even though they exert non-trivial effects on payoffs and probabilities considered in isolation (i.e., before integrating). Thus, rational ignoring requires no decision costs. cognitive constraints, or other forms of bounded rationality. This implies that simple decision rules relying on small subsets of the available information can, depending on the environment in which they are used, achieve high payoffs. Ignoring information is therefore rationalizable solely as a consequence of the shape of the stochastic payoff distribution.
Mots-clé
Ignoring, Value of information, Heuristic, Bounded rationality, Ecological rationality
Web of science
Création de la notice
24/02/2009 15:34
Dernière modification de la notice
20/08/2019 15:21
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