Early worsening of plasma lipid levels (EWL; ≥5% change after 1 month) induced by at-risk psychotropic treatments predicts considerable exacerbation of plasma lipid levels and/or dyslipidaemia development in the longer term.
We aimed to determine which clinical and genetic risk factors could predict EWL.
Predictive values of baseline clinical characteristics and dyslipidaemia-associated single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) on EWL were evaluated in a discovery sample (n = 177) and replicated in two samples from the same cohort (PsyMetab; n ₁ = 176; n ₂ = 86).
Low baseline levels of total cholesterol, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) and triglycerides, and high baseline levels of high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), were risk factors for early increase in total cholesterol (P = 0.002), LDL-C (P = 0.02) and triglycerides (P = 0.0006), and early decrease in HDL-C (P = 0.04). Adding genetic parameters (n = 17, 18, 19 and 16 SNPs for total cholesterol, LDL-C, HDL-C and triglycerides, respectively) improved areas under the curve for early worsening of total cholesterol (from 0.66 to 0.91), LDL-C (from 0.62 to 0.87), triglycerides (from 0.73 to 0.92) and HDL-C (from 0.69 to 0.89) (P ≤ 0.00003 in discovery sample). The additive value of genetics to predict early worsening of LDL-C levels was confirmed in two replication samples (P ≤ 0.004). In the combined sample (n ≥ 203), adding genetics improved the prediction of new-onset dyslipidaemia for total cholesterol, LDL-C and HDL-C (P ≤ 0.04).
Clinical and genetic factors contributed to the prediction of EWL and new-onset dyslipidaemia in three samples of patients who started at-risk psychotropic treatments. Future larger studies should be conducted to refine SNP estimates to be integrated into clinically applicable predictive models.