Constant Salvage Value Models: A Source of Systematic Bias in Predicting the Value of Lead-Time Reduction

Details

Serval ID
serval:BIB_3BB689B80A5B
Type
Report: a report published by a school or other institution, usually numbered within a series.
Publication sub-type
Working paper: Working papers contain results presented by the author. Working papers aim to stimulate discussions between scientists with interested parties, they can also be the basis to publish articles in specialized journals
Collection
Publications
Institution
Title
Constant Salvage Value Models: A Source of Systematic Bias in Predicting the Value of Lead-Time Reduction
Author(s)
Wager S., de Treville S.
Institution details
SSRN - Social Science Research Network
Issued date
01/2013
Genre
working papers series
Language
english
Number of pages
21
Abstract
The assumption that unsold goods can be liquidated at a constant salvage value is widespread in inventory theory. We show that, under general mathematical conditions, this modeling assumption will cause companies to underestimate both the value of lead-time reduction and the cost of lead time increases. Our result does not require that companies actively consider the possibility of non-constant salvage values. Rather we show that, in an environment where salvage values are allowed to depend on the amount of overage, a firm that cuts lead times according to a strategy that assumes a constant salvage value will earn more money than predicted from its lead-time reduction.
Keywords
Lead Time, Newsvendor Model, Martingale Model of Forecast Evolution, Salvage Value
Create date
03/10/2014 10:53
Last modification date
20/08/2019 14:31
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