Committed Ice Loss in the European Alps Until 2050 Using a Deep‐Learning‐Aided 3D Ice‐Flow Model With Data Assimilation

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Version: Final published version
License: CC BY 4.0
Serval ID
serval:BIB_3A47A04D5AE9
Type
Article: article from journal or magazin.
Collection
Publications
Institution
Title
Committed Ice Loss in the European Alps Until 2050 Using a Deep‐Learning‐Aided 3D Ice‐Flow Model With Data Assimilation
Journal
Geophysical Research Letters
Author(s)
Cook Samuel J., Jouvet Guillaume, Millan Romain, Rabatel Antoine, Zekollari Harry, Dussaillant Inés
ISSN
0094-8276
1944-8007
Publication state
Published
Issued date
16/12/2023
Peer-reviewed
Oui
Volume
50
Number
23
Language
english
Abstract
Modeling the short-term (<50 years) evolution of glaciers is difficult because of issues related to model initialization and data assimilation. However, this timescale is critical, particularly for water resources, natural hazards, and ecology. Using a unique record of satellite remote-sensing data, combined with a novel optimisation and surface-forcing-calculation method within the framework of the deep-learning-based Instructed Glacier Model, we are able to ameliorate initialization issues. We thus model the committed evolution of all glaciers in the European Alps up to 2050 using present-day climate conditions, assuming no future climate change. We find that the resulting committed ice loss exceeds a third of the present-day ice volume by 2050, with multi-kilometer frontal retreats for even the largest glaciers. Our results show the importance of modeling ice dynamics to accurately retrieve the ice-thickness distribution and to predict future mass changes. Thanks to high-performance GPU processing, we also demonstrate our method's global potential.
Keywords
General Earth and Planetary Sciences, Geophysics
Web of science
Open Access
Yes
Create date
14/12/2023 11:18
Last modification date
31/01/2024 8:25
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