Committed Ice Loss in the European Alps Until 2050 Using a Deep‐Learning‐Aided 3D Ice‐Flow Model With Data Assimilation

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Ressource 1Télécharger: Geophysical Research Letters - 2023 - Cook - Committed Ice Loss in the European Alps Until 2050 Using a Deep‐Learning‐Aided.pdf (6608.82 [Ko])
Etat: Public
Version: Final published version
Licence: CC BY 4.0
ID Serval
serval:BIB_3A47A04D5AE9
Type
Article: article d'un périodique ou d'un magazine.
Collection
Publications
Institution
Titre
Committed Ice Loss in the European Alps Until 2050 Using a Deep‐Learning‐Aided 3D Ice‐Flow Model With Data Assimilation
Périodique
Geophysical Research Letters
Auteur⸱e⸱s
Cook Samuel J., Jouvet Guillaume, Millan Romain, Rabatel Antoine, Zekollari Harry, Dussaillant Inés
ISSN
0094-8276
1944-8007
Statut éditorial
Publié
Date de publication
16/12/2023
Peer-reviewed
Oui
Volume
50
Numéro
23
Langue
anglais
Résumé
Modeling the short-term (<50 years) evolution of glaciers is difficult because of issues related to model initialization and data assimilation. However, this timescale is critical, particularly for water resources, natural hazards, and ecology. Using a unique record of satellite remote-sensing data, combined with a novel optimisation and surface-forcing-calculation method within the framework of the deep-learning-based Instructed Glacier Model, we are able to ameliorate initialization issues. We thus model the committed evolution of all glaciers in the European Alps up to 2050 using present-day climate conditions, assuming no future climate change. We find that the resulting committed ice loss exceeds a third of the present-day ice volume by 2050, with multi-kilometer frontal retreats for even the largest glaciers. Our results show the importance of modeling ice dynamics to accurately retrieve the ice-thickness distribution and to predict future mass changes. Thanks to high-performance GPU processing, we also demonstrate our method's global potential.
Mots-clé
General Earth and Planetary Sciences, Geophysics
Web of science
Open Access
Oui
Création de la notice
14/12/2023 11:18
Dernière modification de la notice
31/01/2024 8:25
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