Advances in the Prediction of MJO Teleconnections in the S2S Forecast Systems

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Version: Final published version
License: Not specified
Serval ID
serval:BIB_2F26F25BFEEB
Type
Article: article from journal or magazin.
Collection
Publications
Institution
Title
Advances in the Prediction of MJO Teleconnections in the S2S Forecast Systems
Journal
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
Author(s)
Stan Cristiana, Zheng Cheng, Chang Edmund Kar-Man, Domeisen Daniela I. V., Garfinkel Chaim I., Jenney Andrea M., Kim Hyemi, Lim Young-Kwon, Lin Hai, Robertson Andrew, Schwartz Chen, Vitart Frederic, Wang Jiabao, Yadav Priyanka
ISSN
0003-0007
1520-0477
Publication state
Published
Issued date
06/2022
Peer-reviewed
Oui
Volume
103
Number
6
Pages
E1426-E1447
Language
english
Abstract
This study evaluates the ability of state-of-the-art subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) forecasting systems to represent and predict the teleconnections of the Madden–Julian oscillation and their effects on weather in terms of midlatitude weather patterns and North Atlantic tropical cyclones. This evaluation of forecast systems applies novel diagnostics developed to track teleconnections along their preferred pathways in the troposphere and stratosphere, and to measure the global and regional responses induced by teleconnections across both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. Results of this study will help the modeling community understand to what extent the potential to predict the weather on S2S time scales is achieved by the current generation of forecasting systems, while informing where to focus further development efforts. The findings of this study will also provide impact modelers and decision-makers with a better understanding of the potential of S2S predictions related to MJO teleconnections.
Keywords
Forecasting, Operational forecasting, Model evaluation/performance, Intraseasonal variability, Subseasonal variability, Decision making
Web of science
Open Access
Yes
Create date
07/10/2022 17:17
Last modification date
10/07/2024 6:05
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