Advances in the Prediction of MJO Teleconnections in the S2S Forecast Systems
Détails
Télécharger: 1520-0477-BAMS-D-21-0130.1.pdf (40390.08 [Ko])
Etat: Public
Version: Final published version
Licence: Non spécifiée
Etat: Public
Version: Final published version
Licence: Non spécifiée
ID Serval
serval:BIB_2F26F25BFEEB
Type
Article: article d'un périodique ou d'un magazine.
Collection
Publications
Institution
Titre
Advances in the Prediction of MJO Teleconnections in the S2S Forecast Systems
Périodique
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
ISSN
0003-0007
1520-0477
1520-0477
Statut éditorial
Publié
Date de publication
06/2022
Peer-reviewed
Oui
Volume
103
Numéro
6
Pages
E1426-E1447
Langue
anglais
Résumé
This study evaluates the ability of state-of-the-art subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) forecasting systems to represent and predict the teleconnections of the Madden–Julian oscillation and their effects on weather in terms of midlatitude weather patterns and North Atlantic tropical cyclones. This evaluation of forecast systems applies novel diagnostics developed to track teleconnections along their preferred pathways in the troposphere and stratosphere, and to measure the global and regional responses induced by teleconnections across both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. Results of this study will help the modeling community understand to what extent the potential to predict the weather on S2S time scales is achieved by the current generation of forecasting systems, while informing where to focus further development efforts. The findings of this study will also provide impact modelers and decision-makers with a better understanding of the potential of S2S predictions related to MJO teleconnections.
Mots-clé
Forecasting, Operational forecasting, Model evaluation/performance, Intraseasonal variability, Subseasonal variability, Decision making
Web of science
Open Access
Oui
Création de la notice
07/10/2022 17:17
Dernière modification de la notice
10/07/2024 6:05