Contemporaneous Aggregation of GARCH Models and Evaluation of the Aggregation Bias
Details
Serval ID
serval:BIB_27EAE14A781A
Type
Report: a report published by a school or other institution, usually numbered within a series.
Publication sub-type
Working paper: Working papers contain results presented by the author. Working papers aim to stimulate discussions between scientists with interested parties, they can also be the basis to publish articles in specialized journals
Collection
Publications
Institution
Title
Contemporaneous Aggregation of GARCH Models and Evaluation of the Aggregation Bias
Institution details
Swiss Finance Institute
Address
Switzerland
Issued date
2008
Number
08-06
Genre
Research Paper
Language
english
Abstract
It is well known that the class of strong (Generalized) AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (or GARCH) processes is not closed under contemporaneous aggregation. This paper provides the dynamics followed by the aggregate process when the individual persistence parameters are drawn from the same (unknown) distribution. Assuming heterogeneity across individual parameters, the dynamics of the aggregate volatility involves additional lags that reflect the moments of the distribution of the individual persistence parameters. Then the paper describes a consistent estimator of the aggregate process, based on nonlinear least squares. A simulation study reveals that this aggregation-corrected estimator performs very well under realistic sets of parameters. Last, this approach is extended to a multi-sector context. This extension is used to evaluate the importance of the aggregation bias. Using size and book-to-market portfolios, I show that the investor is willing to pay one fifth of her expected return to switch from the standard GARCH(1,1) estimator to the aggregation-corrected estimator.
Keywords
Contemporaneous aggregation, Heterogeneity, Volatility, GARCH model
Create date
24/02/2009 22:33
Last modification date
20/08/2019 13:07