Non-parametric estimation of intraday spot volatility: disentangling instantaneous trend and seasonality

Details

Serval ID
serval:BIB_207EDE5227A1
Type
Article: article from journal or magazin.
Collection
Publications
Institution
Title
Non-parametric estimation of intraday spot volatility: disentangling instantaneous trend and seasonality
Journal
Econometrics
Author(s)
Vatter T., Wu H.-T., Chavez-Demoulin V., Yu B.
ISSN
2225-1146
Publication state
Published
Issued date
12/2015
Volume
3
Number
4
Pages
864-887
Language
english
Abstract
We provide a new framework for modeling trends and periodic patterns in high-frequency financial data. Seeking adaptivity to ever-changing market conditions, we enlarge the Fourier flexible form into a richer functional class: both our smooth trend and the seasonality are non-parametrically time-varying and evolve in real time. We provide the associated estimators and use simulations to show that they behave adequately in the presence of jumps and heteroskedastic and heavy-tailed noise. A study of exchange rate returns sampled from 2010 to 2013 suggests that failing to factor in the seasonality's dynamic properties may lead to misestimation of the intraday spot volatility.
Keywords
intraday spot volatility, seasonality, foreign exchange returns, time-frequency analysis, synchrosqueezing
Open Access
Yes
Create date
01/12/2015 11:26
Last modification date
20/08/2019 12:56
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