Predictability of Northern Hemisphere Final Stratospheric Warmings and Their Surface Impacts
Détails
Télécharger: Geophysical Research Letters - 2019 - Butler - Predictability of Northern Hemisphere Final Stratospheric Warmings and Their.pdf (2235.46 [Ko])
Etat: Public
Version: Final published version
Licence: Non spécifiée
Etat: Public
Version: Final published version
Licence: Non spécifiée
ID Serval
serval:BIB_EE34CAB9D750
Type
Article: article d'un périodique ou d'un magazine.
Collection
Publications
Institution
Titre
Predictability of Northern Hemisphere Final Stratospheric Warmings and Their Surface Impacts
Périodique
Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN
0094-8276
1944-8007
1944-8007
Statut éditorial
Publié
Date de publication
09/2019
Peer-reviewed
Oui
Volume
46
Numéro
17-18
Pages
10578-10588
Langue
anglais
Résumé
Each spring, the climatological westerly winds of the Northern Hemisphere (NH) stratospheric polar vortex turn easterly as the stratospheric equator-to-pole temperature gradient relaxes. The timing of this event is dictated both by the annual return of sunlight to the pole and by dynamical influences from the troposphere. Here we consider the predictability of NH final stratospheric warmings in multimodel hindcasts from the Subseasonal to Seasonal project database. We evaluate how well the Subseasonal to Seasonal prediction systems perform in capturing the timing of final warmings. We compare the predictability of early warmings (which are more strongly driven by wave forcing) and late warmings and find that late warmings are more skillfully predicted at longer lead times. Finally, we find significantly increased predictive skill of NH near-surface temperature anomalies at Weeks 3–4 lead times following only early final warmings.
Mots-clé
stratosphere, prediction, subseasonal, polar vortex, final warming
Web of science
Site de l'éditeur
Création de la notice
08/03/2022 14:12
Dernière modification de la notice
31/10/2024 22:55