Predictability of Northern Hemisphere Final Stratospheric Warmings and Their Surface Impacts

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Version: Final published version
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Serval ID
serval:BIB_EE34CAB9D750
Type
Article: article from journal or magazin.
Collection
Publications
Title
Predictability of Northern Hemisphere Final Stratospheric Warmings and Their Surface Impacts
Journal
Geophysical Research Letters
Author(s)
Butler Amy H., Charlton-Perez Andrew, Domeisen Daniela I.V., Simpson Isla R., Sjoberg Jeremiah
ISSN
0094-8276
1944-8007
Publication state
Published
Issued date
09/2019
Peer-reviewed
Oui
Volume
46
Number
17-18
Pages
10578-10588
Language
english
Abstract
Each spring, the climatological westerly winds of the Northern Hemisphere (NH) stratospheric polar vortex turn easterly as the stratospheric equator-to-pole temperature gradient relaxes. The timing of this event is dictated both by the annual return of sunlight to the pole and by dynamical influences from the troposphere. Here we consider the predictability of NH final stratospheric warmings in multimodel hindcasts from the Subseasonal to Seasonal project database. We evaluate how well the Subseasonal to Seasonal prediction systems perform in capturing the timing of final warmings. We compare the predictability of early warmings (which are more strongly driven by wave forcing) and late warmings and find that late warmings are more skillfully predicted at longer lead times. Finally, we find significantly increased predictive skill of NH near-surface temperature anomalies at Weeks 3–4 lead times following only early final warmings.
Keywords
stratosphere, prediction, subseasonal, polar vortex, final warming
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Create date
08/03/2022 14:12
Last modification date
31/10/2024 22:55
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