Bryophytes are predicted to lag behind future climate change despite their high dispersal capacities.

Détails

Ressource 1Télécharger: 33154374_BIB_354EAE73A429.pdf (1702.62 [Ko])
Etat: Public
Version: Final published version
Licence: CC BY 4.0
ID Serval
serval:BIB_354EAE73A429
Type
Article: article d'un périodique ou d'un magazine.
Collection
Publications
Institution
Titre
Bryophytes are predicted to lag behind future climate change despite their high dispersal capacities.
Périodique
Nature communications
Auteur(s)
Zanatta F., Engler R., Collart F., Broennimann O., Mateo R.G., Papp B., Muñoz J., Baurain D., Guisan A., Vanderpoorten A.
ISSN
2041-1723 (Electronic)
ISSN-L
2041-1723
Statut éditorial
Publié
Date de publication
05/11/2020
Peer-reviewed
Oui
Volume
11
Numéro
1
Pages
5601
Langue
anglais
Notes
Publication types: Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Publication Status: epublish
Résumé
The extent to which species can balance out the loss of suitable habitats due to climate warming by shifting their ranges is an area of controversy. Here, we assess whether highly efficient wind-dispersed organisms like bryophytes can keep-up with projected shifts in their areas of suitable climate. Using a hybrid statistical-mechanistic approach accounting for spatial and temporal variations in both climatic and wind conditions, we simulate future migrations across Europe for 40 bryophyte species until 2050. The median ratios between predicted range loss vs expansion by 2050 across species and climate change scenarios range from 1.6 to 3.3 when only shifts in climatic suitability were considered, but increase to 34.7-96.8 when species dispersal abilities are added to our models. This highlights the importance of accounting for dispersal restrictions when projecting future distribution ranges and suggests that even highly dispersive organisms like bryophytes are not equipped to fully track the rates of ongoing climate change in the course of the next decades.
Pubmed
Open Access
Oui
Création de la notice
13/10/2020 22:06
Dernière modification de la notice
30/04/2021 7:09
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