Bryophytes are predicted to lag behind future climate change despite their high dispersal capacities.

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Version: Final published version
License: CC BY 4.0
Serval ID
serval:BIB_354EAE73A429
Type
Article: article from journal or magazin.
Collection
Publications
Institution
Title
Bryophytes are predicted to lag behind future climate change despite their high dispersal capacities.
Journal
Nature communications
Author(s)
Zanatta F., Engler R., Collart F., Broennimann O., Mateo R.G., Papp B., Muñoz J., Baurain D., Guisan A., Vanderpoorten A.
ISSN
2041-1723 (Electronic)
ISSN-L
2041-1723
Publication state
Published
Issued date
05/11/2020
Peer-reviewed
Oui
Volume
11
Number
1
Pages
5601
Language
english
Notes
Publication types: Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Publication Status: epublish
Abstract
The extent to which species can balance out the loss of suitable habitats due to climate warming by shifting their ranges is an area of controversy. Here, we assess whether highly efficient wind-dispersed organisms like bryophytes can keep-up with projected shifts in their areas of suitable climate. Using a hybrid statistical-mechanistic approach accounting for spatial and temporal variations in both climatic and wind conditions, we simulate future migrations across Europe for 40 bryophyte species until 2050. The median ratios between predicted range loss vs expansion by 2050 across species and climate change scenarios range from 1.6 to 3.3 when only shifts in climatic suitability were considered, but increase to 34.7-96.8 when species dispersal abilities are added to our models. This highlights the importance of accounting for dispersal restrictions when projecting future distribution ranges and suggests that even highly dispersive organisms like bryophytes are not equipped to fully track the rates of ongoing climate change in the course of the next decades.
Pubmed
Open Access
Yes
Create date
13/10/2020 22:06
Last modification date
30/04/2021 7:09
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