An evidential support accumulation model of subjective probability

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serval:BIB_AC0885FEDD87
Type
Article: article from journal or magazin.
Collection
Publications
Title
An evidential support accumulation model of subjective probability
Journal
Cognitive Psychology
Author(s)
Koehler  D. J., White  C. M., Grondin  R.
Publication state
Published
Issued date
2003
Volume
46
Pages
152-197
Abstract
A model of cue-based probability judgment is developed within the framework of support theory. Cue diagnosticity is evaluated from experience as represented by error-free frequency counts. When presented with a pattern of cues, the diagnostic implications of each cue are assessed independently and then summed to arrive at an assessment of the support for a hypothesis, with greater weight placed on present than on absent cues. The model can also accommodate adjustment of support in light of the baserate or prior probability of a hypothesis. Support for alternatives packed together in a ''residual'' hypothesis is discounted; fewer cues are consulted in assessing support for alternatives as support for the focal hypothesis increases. Results of fitting this and several alternative models to data from four new multiple-cue probability learning experiments are reported.
Keywords
Evidence evaluation, Subjective probability, Multiple-cue probability learning, Support theory, Bayesian reasoning
Create date
03/12/2007 11:51
Last modification date
20/08/2019 16:16
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