An evidential support accumulation model of subjective probability
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State: Public
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serval:BIB_AC0885FEDD87
Type
Article: article from journal or magazin.
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Publications
Institution
Title
An evidential support accumulation model of subjective probability
Journal
Cognitive Psychology
Publication state
Published
Issued date
2003
Volume
46
Pages
152-197
Abstract
A model of cue-based probability judgment is developed within the framework of support theory. Cue diagnosticity is evaluated from experience as represented by error-free frequency counts. When presented with a pattern of cues, the diagnostic implications of each cue are assessed independently and then summed to arrive at an assessment of the support for a hypothesis, with greater weight placed on present than on absent cues. The model can also accommodate adjustment of support in light of the baserate or prior probability of a hypothesis. Support for alternatives packed together in a ''residual'' hypothesis is discounted; fewer cues are consulted in assessing support for alternatives as support for the focal hypothesis increases. Results of fitting this and several alternative models to data from four new multiple-cue probability learning experiments are reported.
Keywords
Evidence evaluation, Subjective probability, Multiple-cue probability learning, Support theory, Bayesian reasoning
Create date
03/12/2007 10:51
Last modification date
20/08/2019 15:16