Prediction and projection of heatwaves

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Serval ID
serval:BIB_FF8D0C79924F
Type
Article: article from journal or magazin.
Collection
Publications
Institution
Title
Prediction and projection of heatwaves
Journal
Nature Reviews Earth & Environment
Author(s)
Domeisen Daniela I. V., Eltahir Elfatih A. B., Fischer Erich M., Knutti Reto, Perkins-Kirkpatrick Sarah E., Schär Christoph, Seneviratne Sonia I., Weisheimer Antje, Wernli Heini
ISSN
2662-138X
Publication state
Published
Issued date
13/12/2022
Peer-reviewed
Oui
Volume
4
Number
1
Pages
36-50
Language
english
Abstract
Heatwaves constitute a major threat to human health and ecosystems. Projected increases in heatwave frequency and severity thus lead to the need for prediction to enhance preparedness and minimize adverse impacts. In this Review, we document current capabilities for heatwave prediction at daily to decadal timescales and outline projected changes under anthropogenic warming. Various local and remote drivers and feedbacks influence heatwave development. On daily timescales, extratropical atmospheric blocking and global land–atmosphere coupling are most pertinent, and on subseasonal to seasonal timescales, soil moisture and ocean surface anomalies contribute. Knowledge of these drivers allows heatwaves to be skilfully predicted at daily to weekly lead times. Predictions are challenging beyond timescales of a few weeks, but tendencies for above-average temperatures can be estimated. Further into the future, heatwaves are anticipated to become more frequent, persistent and intense in nearly all inhabited regions, with trends amplified by soil drying in some areas, especially the mid-latitudes. There is also an increased occurrence of humid heatwaves, especially in southern Asia. A better understanding of the relevant drivers and their model representation, including atmospheric dynamics, atmospheric and soil moisture, and surface cover should be prioritized to improve heatwave prediction and projection.
Keywords
Nature and Landscape Conservation, Atmospheric Science, Earth-Surface Processes, Pollution
Web of science
Create date
19/01/2023 18:52
Last modification date
31/01/2023 8:16
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