Downscaling climate projections over large and data sparse regions: Methodological application in the Zambezi River Basin

Details

Serval ID
serval:BIB_F901EF2DA59D
Type
Article: article from journal or magazin.
Collection
Publications
Title
Downscaling climate projections over large and data sparse regions: Methodological application in the Zambezi River Basin
Journal
International Journal of Climatology
Author(s)
Peleg Nadav, Sinclair Scott, Fatichi Simone, Burlando Paolo
ISSN
0899-8418
1097-0088
Publication state
Published
Issued date
12/2020
Peer-reviewed
Oui
Volume
40
Number
15
Pages
6242-6264
Language
english
Abstract
Climate impact studies often require climate data at a higher space–time resolution than is available from global and regional climate models. Weather generator (WG) models, generally designed for mesoscale applications (e.g., 101–105 km2), are popular and widely used tools to downscale climate data to finer resolution. One advantage of using WGs is their ability to generate the necessary climate variables for impact studies in data sparse regions. In this study, we evaluate the ability of a previously established state of the art WG (the AWE-GEN-2d model) to perform in data sparse regions that are beyond the mesoscale, using the Zambezi River basin (106 km2) in southeast Africa as a case study. The AWE-GEN-2d model was calibrated using data from satellite retrievals and climate re-analysis products in place of the absent observational data. An 8-km climate ensemble at hourly resolution, covering the period of 1976–2099 (present climate and RCP4.5 emission scenario from 2020), was then simulated. Using the simulated 30-member ensemble, climate indices for both present and future climates were computed. The high-resolution climate indices allow detailed analysis of the effects of climate change on different areas within the basin. For example, the southwestern area of the basin is predicted to experience the greatest change due to increased temperature, while the southeastern area was found to be already so hot that is less affected (e.g., the number of 'very hot days' per year increase by 18 and 9 days, respectively). Rainfall intensities are found to increase most in the eastern areas of the basin (1 mm·d−1) in comparison to the western region (0.3 mm·d−1). As demonstrated in this study, AWE-GEN-2d can be calibrated successfully using data from climate reanalysis products in the absence of ground station data and can be applied at larger scales than the mesoscale.
Keywords
Atmospheric Science
Web of science
Open Access
Yes
Create date
09/08/2021 15:03
Last modification date
15/11/2022 15:08
Usage data