Prediction of plant species distributions across six millennia.

Détails

ID Serval
serval:BIB_F523EE75606E
Type
Article: article d'un périodique ou d'un magazine.
Collection
Publications
Titre
Prediction of plant species distributions across six millennia.
Périodique
Ecology Letters
Auteur(s)
Pearman P.B., Randin C.F., Broennimann O., Vittoz P., van der Knaap W.O., Engler R., Le Lay G., Zimmermann N.E., Guisan A.
ISSN
1461-0248[electronic]
Statut éditorial
Publié
Date de publication
2008
Peer-reviewed
Oui
Volume
11
Numéro
4
Pages
357-369
Langue
anglais
Résumé
The usefulness of species distribution models (SDMs) in predicting impacts of climate change on biodiversity is difficult to assess because changes in species ranges may take decades or centuries to occur. One alternative way to evaluate the predictive ability of SDMs across time is to compare their predictions with data on past species distributions. We use data on plant distributions, fossil pollen and current and mid-Holocene climate to test the ability of SDMs to predict past climate-change impacts. We find that species showing little change in the estimated position of their realized niche, with resulting good model performance, tend to be dominant competitors for light. Different mechanisms appear to be responsible for among-species differences in model performance. Confidence in predictions of the impacts of climate change could be improved by selecting species with characteristics that suggest little change is expected in the relationships between species occurrence and climate patterns.
Mots-clé
Climate, Ecosystem, Europe, Fossils, Geography, Models, Biological, Multivariate Analysis, Pollen, Trees
Pubmed
Web of science
Création de la notice
30/01/2008 10:38
Dernière modification de la notice
03/03/2018 22:45
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