A multi-temporal approach to model endangered species distribution in Europe: the case of the Eurasian otter in Italy

Détails

ID Serval
serval:BIB_F35DD7FDF1CA
Type
Article: article d'un périodique ou d'un magazine.
Collection
Publications
Titre
A multi-temporal approach to model endangered species distribution in Europe: the case of the Eurasian otter in Italy
Périodique
Ecological Modelling
Auteur(s)
Carone M.T., Guisan A., Cianfrani C., Simoniello T., Loy A., Carranza M.L.
ISSN
1872-7026
ISSN-L
0304-3800
Statut éditorial
Publié
Date de publication
2014
Peer-reviewed
Oui
Volume
274
Pages
21-28
Langue
anglais
Résumé
We analysed the relationship between changes in land cover patterns and the Eurasian otter occurrence over the course of about 20 years (1985-2006) using multi-temporal Species Distribution Models (SDMs). The study area includes five river catchments covering most of the otter's Italian range. Land cover and topographic data were used as proxies of the ecological requirements of the otter within a 300-m buffer around river courses. We used species presence, pseudo-absence data, and environmental predictors to build past (1985) and current (2006) SDMs by applying an ensemble procedure through the BIOMOD modelling package. The performance of each model was evaluated by measuring the area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver-operating characteristic (ROC). Multi-temporal analyses of species distribution and land cover maps were performed by comparing the maps produced for 1985 and 2006. The ensemble procedure provided a good overall modelling accuracy, revealing that elevation and slope affected the otter's distribution in the past; in contrast, land cover predictors, such as cultivations and forests, were more important in the present period. During the transition period, 20.5% of the area became suitable, with 76% of the new otter presence data being located in these newly available areas. The multi-temporal analysis suggested that the quality of otter habitat improved in the last 20 years owing to the expansion of forests and to the reduction of cultivated fields in riparian belts. The evidence presented here stresses the great potential of riverine habitat restoration and environmental management for the future expansion of the otter in Italy
Mots-clé
multitemporal species distribution modelling, otter, Italy
Web of science
Création de la notice
25/11/2013 16:32
Dernière modification de la notice
03/03/2018 22:42
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