Behavioral bias in number processing: Evidence from analysts' expectations

Details

Serval ID
serval:BIB_F3387600C665
Type
Article: article from journal or magazin.
Collection
Publications
Institution
Title
Behavioral bias in number processing: Evidence from analysts' expectations
Journal
Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization
Author(s)
Roger T., Roger P., Schatt A.
ISSN
0167-2681
Publication state
Published
Issued date
05/2018
Peer-reviewed
Oui
Volume
149
Number
315-331
Pages
315-331
Language
english
Abstract
Research in neuropsychology shows that individuals process small and large numbers differently. Small numbers are processed on a linear scale, while large numbers are processed on a logarithmic scale. In this paper, we show that financial analysts process small prices and large prices differently. When they are optimistic (pessimistic), analysts issue more optimistic (pessimistic) target prices for small price stocks than for large price stocks. Our results are robust when controlling for the usual risk factors such as size, book-to-market, momentum, profitability and investments. They are also robust when we control for firm and analyst characteristics, or for other biases such as the 52-week high bias, the preference for lottery-type stocks and positive skewness, and the analyst tendency to round numbers. Finally, we show that analysts become more optimistic after stock splits. Overall, our results suggest that a deeply-rooted behavioral bias in number processing drives analysts’ return expectations.
Keywords
Economics and Econometrics, Organizational Behavior and Human Resource Management
Web of science
Create date
01/03/2018 15:46
Last modification date
20/08/2019 16:20
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