Numerical ability predicts mortgage default

Details

Serval ID
serval:BIB_EE694FE6B5AE
Type
Article: article from journal or magazin.
Collection
Publications
Institution
Title
Numerical ability predicts mortgage default
Journal
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS)
Author(s)
Gerardi  K., Goette  L., Meier  S.
ISSN
0027-8424
Publication state
Published
Issued date
06/2013
Peer-reviewed
Oui
Volume
110
Number
28
Pages
11267-11271
Language
english
Abstract
Unprecedented levels of US subprime mortgage defaults precipitated a severe global financial crisis in late 2008, plunging much of the industrialized world into a deep recession. However, the fundamental reasons for why US mortgages defaulted at such spectacular rates remain largely unknown. This paper presents empirical evidence showing that the ability to perform basic mathematical calculations is negatively associated with the propensity to default on one's mortgage. We measure several aspects of financial literacy and cognitive ability in a survey of subprime mortgage borrowers who took out loans in 2006 and 2007, and match them to objective, detailed administrative data on mortgage characteristics and payment histories. The relationship between numerical ability and mortgage default is robust to controlling for a broad set of sociodemographic variables, and is not driven by other aspects of cognitive ability. We find no support for the hypothesis that numerical ability impacts mortgage outcomes through the choice of the mortgage contract. Rather, our results suggest that individuals with limited numerical ability default on their mortgage due to behavior unrelated to the initial choice of their mortgage.
Keywords
foreclosure, consumer finance, subprime loans, limited rationality
Web of science
Open Access
Yes
Create date
23/10/2013 14:35
Last modification date
21/08/2019 6:18
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