Shallow landslide's stochastic risk modelling based on the precipitation event of August 2005 in Switzerland: results and implications

Détails

ID Serval
serval:BIB_ED0DA3EFF62B
Type
Article: article d'un périodique ou d'un magazine.
Collection
Publications
Titre
Shallow landslide's stochastic risk modelling based on the precipitation event of August 2005 in Switzerland: results and implications
Périodique
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
Auteur(s)
Nicolet P., Foresti L., Caspar O., Jaboyedoff M.
ISSN-L
1561-8633
Statut éditorial
Publié
Date de publication
2013
Peer-reviewed
Oui
Volume
13
Pages
3169-3184
Langue
anglais
Résumé
Due to their relatively unpredictable characteristics, shallow landslides represent a risk for human infrastructures. Multiple shallow landslides can be triggered by widespread intense precipitation events. The event of August 2005 in Switzerland is used in order to propose a risk model to predict the expected number of landslides based on the precipitation amounts and lithological units. The spatial distribution of rainfall is characterized by merging data coming from operational weather radars and a dense network of rain gauges with an artificial neural network. Lithologies are grouped into four main units, with similar characteristics. Then, from a landslide inventory containing more than 5000 landslides, a probabilistic relation linking the precipitation amount and the lithology to the number of landslides in a 1 km2 cell, is derived. In a next step, this relation is used to randomly redistribute the landslides using Monte Carlo simulations. The probability for a landslide to reach a building is assessed using stochastic geometry and the damage cost is assessed from the estimated mean damage cost using an exponential distribution to account for the variability. Although the model reproduces well the number of landslides, the number of affected buildings is underestimated. This seems to result from the human influence on landslide occurrence. Such a model might be useful to characterize the risk resulting from shallow landslides and its variability.
Open Access
Oui
Création de la notice
05/05/2014 9:37
Dernière modification de la notice
21/08/2019 5:11
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