Trade, Finance, Specialization and Synchronization

Details

Serval ID
serval:BIB_ECC3D0673123
Type
Article: article from journal or magazin.
Collection
Publications
Institution
Title
Trade, Finance, Specialization and Synchronization
Journal
Review of Economics and Statistics
Author(s)
Imbs J.
Publication state
Published
Issued date
08/2004
Peer-reviewed
Oui
Volume
86
Number
3
Pages
723-734
Abstract
I investigate the determinants of business cycle synchronization across regions. The linkages between trade in goods, financial openness, specialization, and business cycle synchronization are evaluated in the context of a system of simultaneous equations. The main results are as follows. (i) Specialization patterns have a sizable effect on business cycles. Most of this effect is independent of trade or financial policy, but directly reflects differences in GDP per capita. (ii) A variety of measures of financial integration suggest that economic regions with strong financial links are significantly more synchronized, even though they also tend to be more specialized. (iii) The estimated role of trade is closer to that implied by existing models once intra-industry trade is held constant. The results obtain in a variety of data sets, measurement strategies, and specifications. They relate to a recent strand of international business cycle models with incomplete markets and transport costs and, on the empirical side, point to an important omission in the list of criteria defining an optimal currency area, namely, specialization patterns. Copyright (c) 2004 President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
Create date
19/11/2007 11:53
Last modification date
20/08/2019 17:14
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