Assessing Generalized Method of Moments Estimates of the Federal Reserve Reaction Function
Details
Serval ID
serval:BIB_E33165CBBA59
Type
Article: article from journal or magazin.
Collection
Publications
Institution
Title
Assessing Generalized Method of Moments Estimates of the Federal Reserve Reaction Function
Journal
Journal of Business and Economic Statistics
ISSN
0735-0015
Publication state
Published
Issued date
2004
Peer-reviewed
Oui
Volume
22
Number
2
Pages
225-239
Language
english
Abstract
Estimating a forward-looking monetary policy rule by the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) has become a popular approach since the influential papers by Clarida, Gali, and Gertler (1998, 2000). We re-examine estimates of the Federal Reserve reaction function using several GMM estimators and a Maximum Likelihood (ML) estimator. First, we show that, over the baseline period 1979-2000, these alternative approaches yield substantially different parameter estimates. Using Monte-Carlo simulations, we show that the finite-sample GMM\ bias can only account for a small part of the discrepancy between estimates. We find that this discrepancy is more plausibly rationalized by the serial correlation of the policy shock, causing mis-specification of GMM estimators through lack of instrument exogeneity. This correlation pattern is related to a shift in the reaction-function parameters in 1987. Re-estimating the reaction function over the 1987-2000 period produces GMM estimates which are very close to the ML estimate.
Keywords
Continuous-updating GMM, Finite-sample properties, Forward-looking model, Maximum Likelihood estimator, Monetary policy reaction function
Web of science
Publisher's website
Create date
19/11/2007 10:51
Last modification date
20/08/2019 16:07