Improving forecasts of arctic-alpine refugia persistence with landscape-scale variables

Détails

ID Serval
serval:BIB_DD99ABC2D57E
Type
Article: article d'un périodique ou d'un magazine.
Collection
Publications
Titre
Improving forecasts of arctic-alpine refugia persistence with landscape-scale variables
Périodique
Geografiska Annaler: Series A, Physical Geography
Auteur(s)
Niskanen A. K. J., Heikkinen R.K., Mod H.K., Väre H., Luoto M.
ISSN
1468-0459
ISSN-L
0435-3676
Statut éditorial
Publié
Date de publication
02/01/2017
Peer-reviewed
Oui
Volume
99
Numéro
1
Pages
2-14
Langue
anglais
Résumé
Refugia, the sites preserving conditions reminiscent of suitable climates, are projected to be crucial for species in a changing climate, particularly at high latitudes. However, the knowledge of current locations of high-latitude refugia and particularly their ability to retain suitable conditions under future climatic changes is limited. Occurrences of refugia have previously been mainly assessed and modelled based solely on climatic features, with insufficient attention being paid to potentially important landscape-scale factors. Here, climate-only models and full' models incorporating topo-edaphic landscape-scale variables (radiation, soil moisture and calcareousness) were developed and compared for 111 arctic-alpine plant species in Northern Fennoscandia. This was done for both current and future climates to determine cells with resilient climatic suitability harbouring refugia. Our results show that topographic and edaphic landscape-scale predictors both significantly improve models of arctic-alpine species distributions and alter projections of refugia occurrence. The predictions of species-climate models ignore landscape-scale ecological processes and may thus provide inaccurate estimates of extinction risk and forecasts of refugia where species can persist under a changing climate.
Mots-clé
Climate change, refugia, landscape-scale factor
Web of science
Création de la notice
02/08/2017 16:42
Dernière modification de la notice
20/08/2019 17:02
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