Mind the gap: Performance metric evaluation in brain-age prediction.

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Version: Final published version
License: CC BY 4.0
Serval ID
serval:BIB_D714EB202852
Type
Article: article from journal or magazin.
Collection
Publications
Institution
Title
Mind the gap: Performance metric evaluation in brain-age prediction.
Journal
Human brain mapping
Author(s)
de Lange A.G., Anatürk M., Rokicki J., Han LKM, Franke K., Alnaes D., Ebmeier K.P., Draganski B., Kaufmann T., Westlye L.T., Hahn T., Cole J.H.
ISSN
1097-0193 (Electronic)
ISSN-L
1065-9471
Publication state
Published
Issued date
07/2022
Peer-reviewed
Oui
Volume
43
Number
10
Pages
3113-3129
Language
english
Notes
Publication types: Journal Article ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Publication Status: ppublish
Abstract
Estimating age based on neuroimaging-derived data has become a popular approach to developing markers for brain integrity and health. While a variety of machine-learning algorithms can provide accurate predictions of age based on brain characteristics, there is significant variation in model accuracy reported across studies. We predicted age in two population-based datasets, and assessed the effects of age range, sample size and age-bias correction on the model performance metrics Pearson's correlation coefficient (r), the coefficient of determination (R <sup>2</sup> ), Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) and Mean Absolute Error (MAE). The results showed that these metrics vary considerably depending on cohort age range; r and R <sup>2</sup> values are lower when measured in samples with a narrower age range. RMSE and MAE are also lower in samples with a narrower age range due to smaller errors/brain age delta values when predictions are closer to the mean age of the group. Across subsets with different age ranges, performance metrics improve with increasing sample size. Performance metrics further vary depending on prediction variance as well as mean age difference between training and test sets, and age-bias corrected metrics indicate high accuracy-also for models showing poor initial performance. In conclusion, performance metrics used for evaluating age prediction models depend on cohort and study-specific data characteristics, and cannot be directly compared across different studies. Since age-bias corrected metrics generally indicate high accuracy, even for poorly performing models, inspection of uncorrected model results provides important information about underlying model attributes such as prediction variance.
Keywords
Algorithms, Brain/diagnostic imaging, Cohort Studies, Humans, Machine Learning, brain-age prediction, machine learning, neuroimaging, statistics
Pubmed
Web of science
Open Access
Yes
Create date
31/03/2022 19:25
Last modification date
23/11/2022 7:15
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