The complex topography of the Alps makes detailed hydrological modelling
a real challenge. It is yet an essential task to improve the insight of
hydrological processes in the context of intensification of renewable
energy use and under the constraints of climate change. In this
perspective and as a case study, the runoff of a small highly
glacierized basin in the Swiss Alpsnamely the Findelen catchment areahas
been modelled with a hydrological model (Routing System 3.0; RS3.0). It
is a conceptual model, based on object-oriented programming and it
computes snow-melt, glaciers, infiltration and runoff processes. As
input, it requires hourly air temperatures and precipitation, and the
geomorphologic features of the catchment area and glacier. RS3.0 has
proven to be very efficient in reproducing discharge. To evaluate the
impacts of climate change on runoffthe final objective of the study
addressed in a companion papera stochastic meteorological data generator
has been developed to reproduce a sequence of air temperature and
precipitation over more than one century. In this way, a continuous
series of daily discharge values has been simulated by RS3.0 with the
stochastic input data. This methodology has also enabled an assessment
of the glacier response time to a stable climate. Indeed, if the
climatic conditions of the standard reference period 1961-1990 were to
be preserved throughout the 21st century, the simulation shows that the
watershed would be slow to adapt: the glaciers would be balanced with
the atmospheric conditions and the water discharge would reach a lower
stable value in more than 40 years. However, the glacierized area would
lose only 3.5% of its surface. Copyright (c) 2012 Royal Meteorological
Society