Can Information Heterogeneity Explain the Exchange Rate Determination Puzzle?

Details

Serval ID
serval:BIB_D3C6688E7F81
Type
Article: article from journal or magazin.
Collection
Publications
Institution
Title
Can Information Heterogeneity Explain the Exchange Rate Determination Puzzle?
Journal
American Economic Review
Author(s)
Bacchetta P., van Wincoop E.
ISSN
0002-8282
Publication state
Published
Issued date
06/2006
Peer-reviewed
Oui
Volume
96
Number
3
Pages
552-576
Language
english
Abstract
Empirical evidence shows that macroeconomic fundamentals have little explanatory power for nominal exchange rates. On the other hand, the recent microstructure approach to exchange rates' has shown that most exchange rate volatility at short to medium horizons is related to order flows. This suggests that investor heterogeneity might be key to understanding exchange rate dynamics, in contrast to the common representative agent approach in macroeconomic models of exchange rate determination. To explore this issue, we introduce investor heterogeneity into an otherwise standard monetary model of exchange rate determination. There are two types of heterogeneity: dispersed information about fundamentals and non-fundamentals based heterogeneity (e.g., liquidity traders). We show that information dispersion leads to magnification and endogenous persistence of the impact of non-fundamentals trade on the exchange rate rational confusion about the source of exchange rate fluctuations. Higher order expectations, familiar from Keynes' beauty contest', partly contribute to these results. The implications of the model are consistent with the evidence on the relationship between exchange rates and fundamentals: (i)fundamentals play little role in explaining exchange rate movements in the short to medium run, (ii) over longer horizons the exchange rate is primarily driven by fundamentals, (iii) exchange rate changes are a weak predictor of future fundamentals.
Web of science
Create date
19/11/2007 11:49
Last modification date
20/08/2019 16:53
Usage data