The Great Recession : A Self-Fulfilling Global Panic
Details
Serval ID
serval:BIB_D33C910BD1D3
Type
Article: article from journal or magazin.
Collection
Publications
Institution
Title
The Great Recession : A Self-Fulfilling Global Panic
Journal
American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics
ISSN
1945-7707
Publication state
Published
Issued date
2016
Peer-reviewed
Oui
Volume
8
Number
4
Pages
177-198
Language
english
Abstract
While the 2008-2009 financial crisis originated in the United States, we witnessed steep declines in output, consumption and investment of similar magnitudes around the globe. This raises two questions. First, given the observed strong home bias in goods and financial markets, what can account for the remarkable global business cycle synchronicity during this period? Second, what can explain the difference relative to previous recessions, where we witnessed far weaker co-movement? To address these questions, we develop a two-country model that allows for self-fulfilling business cycle panics. We show that a business cycle panic will necessarily be synchronized across countries as long as there is a minimum level of economic integration. Moreover, we show that several factors generated particular vulnerability to such a global panic in 2008: tight credit, the zero lower bound, unresponsive fiscal policy and increased economic integration.
Web of science
Publisher's website
Create date
30/07/2013 10:22
Last modification date
20/08/2019 15:53