A Comprehensive Look at the Empirical Performance of Equity Premium Prediction

Details

Serval ID
serval:BIB_D1F52F96681D
Type
Article: article from journal or magazin.
Collection
Publications
Institution
Title
A Comprehensive Look at the Empirical Performance of Equity Premium Prediction
Journal
Review of Financial Studies
Author(s)
Goyal  A., Welch  I.
ISSN
0893-9454
Publication state
Published
Issued date
07/2008
Peer-reviewed
Oui
Volume
21
Number
4
Pages
1455-1508
Language
english
Notes
Michael Brennan Award for Best Paper at the Review of Financial Studies
Abstract
Our article comprehensively reexamines the performance of variables that have been suggested by the academic literature to be good predictors of the equity premium. We find that by and large, these models have predicted poorly both in-sample (IS) and out-of-sample (OOS) for 30 years now; these models seem unstable, as diagnosed by their out-of-sample predictions and other statistics; and these models would not have helped an investor with access only to available information to profitably time the market.
Keywords
Stock return predictability, long-horizon regressions, book-to-market, expected returns, dividend yields, economic-significance, exchange-rates, term structure, risk premiums, inflation
Web of science
Create date
07/07/2009 13:30
Last modification date
20/08/2019 15:52
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