Toxic substances in blood: an analysis of current recommendations under a Bayesian (decision) approach

Détails

ID Serval
serval:BIB_BBAAB1A43553
Type
Article: article d'un périodique ou d'un magazine.
Collection
Publications
Titre
Toxic substances in blood: an analysis of current recommendations under a Bayesian (decision) approach
Périodique
Law, Probability and Risk
Auteur(s)
Taroni F., Biedermann A., Bozza S., Vuille J., Augsburger M.
ISSN
1470-8396
1470-840X
ISSN-L
1470-8396
Statut éditorial
Publié
Date de publication
01/03/2014
Peer-reviewed
Oui
Volume
13
Numéro
1
Pages
27-45
Langue
anglais
Résumé
This article extends existing discussion in literature on probabilistic inference and decision making with respect to continuous hypotheses that are prevalent in forensic toxicology. As a main aim, this research investigates the properties of a widely followed approach for quantifying the level of toxic substances in blood samples, and to compare this procedure with a Bayesian probabilistic approach. As an example, attention is confined to the presence of toxic substances, such as THC, in blood from car drivers. In this context, the interpretation of results from laboratory analyses needs to take into account legal requirements for establishing the 'presence' of target substances in blood. In a first part, the performance of the proposed Bayesian model for the estimation of an unknown parameter (here, the amount of a toxic substance) is illustrated and compared with the currently used method. The model is then used in a second part to approach-in a rational way-the decision component of the problem, that is judicial questions of the kind 'Is the quantity of THC measured in the blood over the legal threshold of 1.5 μg/l?'. This is pointed out through a practical example.
Mots-clé
scientific evidence evaluation point estimation decision making Bayesian model toxicology
Web of science
Création de la notice
05/03/2014 15:07
Dernière modification de la notice
03/03/2018 20:55
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