Climate Change Impacts the Protective Effect of Forests: A Case Study in Switzerland

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Version: Final published version
License: CC BY 4.0
Serval ID
serval:BIB_BA11EFEC59BE
Type
Article: article from journal or magazin.
Collection
Publications
Institution
Title
Climate Change Impacts the Protective Effect of Forests: A Case Study in Switzerland
Journal
Frontiers in Forests and Global Change
Author(s)
Moos Christine, Guisan Antoine, Randin Christophe F., Lischke Heike
ISSN
2624-893X
Publication state
Published
Issued date
29/06/2021
Peer-reviewed
Oui
Volume
4
Language
english
Abstract
In steep terrain, forests play an important role as natural means of protection against natural hazards, such as rockfall. Due to climate warming, significant changes in the protection service of these forests have to be expected in future. Shifts of current to more drought adapted species may result in temporary or even irreversible losses in the reduction of rockfall risk provided by these forests. In this study, we assessed how the protective capacity against rockfall of a protection forest in the western part of the Valais in the Swiss Alps may change in future, by combining dynamic forest modelling with a quantitative risk analysis. Current and future forest development was modelled with the spatially explicit forest model TreeMig under a moderate (RCP4.5) and an extreme (RCP8.5) climate change scenario. The simulated forest scenarios were compared to ground-truth data from the current forest complex. We quantified the protective effect of the different forest scenarios based on the reduction of rockfall risk for people and infrastructure at the bottom of the slope. Rockfall risk was calculated on the basis of three-dimensional rockfall simulations. The forest simulations predicted a clear decrease in basal area of most of the currently occuring species (Fagus sylvatica, Picea abies, Larix decidua, and Abies alba) in future. The forest turned into a Quercus pubescens dominated forest, for both climate scenarios, mixed with Pinus sylvestris under RCP4.5. With climate warming, a clear increase in risk is expected for both climate change scenarios. In the long-term (>100 years), a stabilization of risk, or even a slight decline may be expected due to an increase in biomass of the trees. The results of this study further indicate that regular forest interventions may promote regeneration and thus accelerate the shift in species distribution. Future research should explore into more details the long-term effect of different adaptive forest management strategies on the protection service of forests under climate change.
Keywords
Nature and Landscape Conservation, Environmental Science (miscellaneous), Ecology, Global and Planetary Change, Forestry
Web of science
Open Access
Yes
Create date
04/04/2024 7:24
Last modification date
15/01/2025 7:02
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