Hindsight bias : a by-product of knowledge updating?

Details

Serval ID
serval:BIB_B73FDD8C6EE2
Type
Article: article from journal or magazin.
Collection
Publications
Title
Hindsight bias : a by-product of knowledge updating?
Journal
Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition
Author(s)
Hoffrage U., Hertwig R., Gigerenzer G.
ISSN
0278-7393
Publication state
Published
Issued date
2000
Peer-reviewed
Oui
Volume
26
Number
3
Pages
566-581
Language
english
Abstract
With the benefit of feedback about the outcome of an event, people's recalled judgments are typically closer to the outcome of the event than their original judgments were. It has been suggested that this hindsight bias may be due to a reconstruction process of the prior judgment. A model of such a process is proposed that assumes that knowledge is updated after feedback and that reconstruction is based on the updated knowledge. Consistent with the model's predictions, the results of 2 studies show that knowledge after feedback is systematically shifted toward feedback, and that assisting retrieval of the knowledge prior to feedback reduces hindsight bias. In addition, the model accounts for about 75% of cases in which either hindsight bias or reversed hindsight bias occurred. The authors conclude that hindsight bias can be understood as a by-product of an adaptive process, namely the updating of knowledge after feedback.
Web of science
Create date
24/02/2009 15:34
Last modification date
20/08/2019 16:25
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