Simulated shifts in trophic niche breadth modulate range loss of alpine butterflies under climate change

Détails

ID Serval
serval:BIB_B32645F4EF9F
Type
Article: article d'un périodique ou d'un magazine.
Collection
Publications
Titre
Simulated shifts in trophic niche breadth modulate range loss of alpine butterflies under climate change
Périodique
Ecography
Auteur(s)
Descombes  P., Pradervand  J.-N., Golay  J., Guisan  A., Pellissier  L.
ISSN
1600-0587
ISSN-L
0906-7590
Statut éditorial
Publié
Date de publication
2016
Peer-reviewed
Oui
Volume
39
Numéro
8
Pages
796-804
Langue
anglais
Résumé
Species currently track suitable abiotic and biotic conditions under ongoing climate change. Adjustments of trophic interactions may provide a mechanism for population persistence, an option that is rarely included in model projections. Here, we model the future distribution, of butterflies in the western Alps of Switzerland under climate change, simulating potential diet expansion resulting from adaptive behavior or new host opportunities. We projected the distribution of 60 butterfly and 298 plant species with species distribution models (SDMs) under three climate change scenarios. From known host plants, we allowed a potential diet expansion based on phylogenetic constraints. We assessed whether diet expansion could reduce the rate of expected regional species extinction under climate change. We found that the risk of species extinctions decreased with a concave upward decreasing shape when expanding the host plant range. A diet expansion to even a few phylogenetically closely related host plants would significantly decrease extinction rates. Yet, even when considering expansion toward all plant species available in the study area, the overall regional extinction risk would remain high. Ecological or evolutionary shifts to new host plants may attenuate extinction risk, but the severe decline of suitable abiotic conditions is still expected to drive many species to local extinction.
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Création de la notice
22/09/2015 19:48
Dernière modification de la notice
20/08/2019 15:21
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