Projected future changes in tropical cyclone-related wave climate in the North Atlantic

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Serval ID
serval:BIB_B0B4CF2458F7
Type
Article: article from journal or magazin.
Collection
Publications
Title
Projected future changes in tropical cyclone-related wave climate in the North Atlantic
Journal
Climate Dynamics
Author(s)
Ali Belmadani (co-first), Alice Dalphinet (co-first)
Working group(s)
Philippe, Palany
Contributor(s)
Fabrice Chauvin, Romain Pilon
ISSN
0930-7575
Publication state
Published
Issued date
08/02/2021
Peer-reviewed
Oui
Language
english
Abstract
Tropical cyclones are a major hazard for numerous countries surrounding the tropical-to-subtropical North Atlantic sub-basin
including the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico. Their intense winds, which can exceed 300 km h−1, can cause serious damage,
particularly along coastlines where the combined action of waves, currents and low atmospheric pressure leads to storm
surge and coastal flooding. This work presents future projections of North Atlantic tropical cyclone-related wave climate.
A new configuration of the ARPEGE-Climat global atmospheric model on a stretched grid reaching ~ 14 km resolution to
the north-east of the eastern Caribbean is able to reproduce the distribution of tropical cyclone winds, including Category
5 hurricanes. Historical (1984–2013, 5 members) and future (2051–2080, 5 members) simulations with the IPCC RCP8.5
scenario are used to drive the MFWAM (Météo-France Wave Action Model) spectral wave model over the Atlantic basin
during the hurricane season. An intermediate 50-km resolution grid is used to propagate mid-latitude swells into a higher
10-km resolution grid over the tropical cyclone main development region. Wave model performance is evaluated over the
historical period with the ERA5 reanalysis and satellite altimetry data. Future projections exhibit a modest but widespread
reduction in seasonal mean wave heights in response to weakening subtropical anticyclone, yet marked increases in tropical
cyclone-related wind sea and extreme wave heights within a large region extending from the African coasts to the North
American continent.
Keywords
Wave, tropical cyclone, climate change, modeling
Open Access
Yes
Create date
25/04/2022 9:31
Last modification date
25/04/2022 9:48
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