Match probabilities in a finite, subdivided population.
Details
Serval ID
serval:BIB_A616746D45F9
Type
Article: article from journal or magazin.
Collection
Publications
Institution
Title
Match probabilities in a finite, subdivided population.
Journal
Theoretical population biology
ISSN
1096-0325 (Electronic)
ISSN-L
0040-5809
Publication state
Published
Issued date
05/2011
Peer-reviewed
Oui
Volume
79
Number
3
Pages
55-63
Language
english
Notes
Publication types: Journal Article ; Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural ; Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Publication Status: ppublish
Publication Status: ppublish
Abstract
We generalize a recently introduced graphical framework to compute the probability that haplotypes or genotypes of two individuals drawn from a finite, subdivided population match. As in the previous work, we assume an infinite-alleles model. We focus on the case of a population divided into two subpopulations, but the underlying framework can be applied to a general model of population subdivision. We examine the effect of population subdivision on the match probabilities and the accuracy of the product rule which approximates multi-locus match probabilities as a product of one-locus match probabilities. We quantify the deviation from predictions of the product rule by R, the ratio of the multi-locus match probability to the product of the one-locus match probabilities. We carry out the computation for two loci and find that ignoring subdivision can lead to underestimation of the match probabilities if the population under consideration actually has subdivision structure and the individuals originate from the same subpopulation. On the other hand, under a given model of population subdivision, we find that the ratio R for two loci is only slightly greater than 1 for a large range of symmetric and asymmetric migration rates. Keeping in mind that the infinite-alleles model is not the appropriate mutation model for STR loci, we conclude that, for two loci and biologically reasonable parameter values, population subdivision may lead to results that disfavor innocent suspects because of an increase in identity-by-descent in finite populations. On the other hand, for the same range of parameters, population subdivision does not lead to a substantial increase in linkage disequilibrium between loci. Those results are consistent with established practice.
Keywords
Alleles, Genotype, Haplotypes, Models, Genetic, Probability
Pubmed
Web of science
Create date
16/06/2019 15:10
Last modification date
04/05/2024 6:07